Response:
A) Methodology, formulas, and modelling
Please provide:
1. Any methodology or technical guidance documents used to produce pupil forecasts for NEPA (school-place planning notes, internal guidance, QA/sign-off notes).
Information relating to pupil projection methodology is refused in answer to this request under section 21 of the Freedom of Information Act, as the information is accessible by other means. This information is available in FOI 6849 here: https://www.northtyneside.gov.uk/freedom-information/disclosure-log/education-review-fois/foi-6849-education-review
2. The formulas/algorithms/models used, including how you incorporate:
historic school census data, birth rate inputs, housing development pupil-yield assumptions, and migration/retention/parental preference factors.
This information is refused in answer to this request under section 21 of the Freedom of Information Act, as the information is accessible by other means. Please see pupil projection modelling data and forecasting up to 2031 available within FOI 6852 https://www.northtyneside.gov.uk/freedom-information/disclosure-log/education-review-fois/foi-6852-education-review
3. Copies of any internal spreadsheets or models (Excel or similar) that perform the projections (pupil-level data not required—please redact if present).
This information is refused in answer to this request under section 21 of the Freedom of Information Act, as the information is accessible by other means. Please see pupil projection modelling data and forecasting up to 2031 available within FOI 6852 https://www.northtyneside.gov.uk/freedom-information/disclosure-log/education-review-fois/foi-6852-education-review
4. Details of any third-party software/consultancy models used (name, version, contract or PO reference, brief description).
Information not held. There are no third party software / consultancy models are used.
5. Internal correspondence/briefings (from 2022 to present) explaining the assumptions, input sources, error margins and/or validation checks applied to these forecasts.
See ‘Pupil place planning in North Tyneside – Spring 2024.docx’ attached.
B) Forecast dataset by school and year group
Please provide, for all NEPA schools (all First, Middle and High schools within NEPA, plus Woodlawn School and Marden High School for continuity of analysis):
1. Forecast pupil numbers by school and by year group (e.g., Reception–Y11 and Post-16 where applicable) for each forecast year up to at least 2030 (or the most recent horizon available).
This information is refused in answer to this request under section 21 of the Freedom of Information Act, as the information is accessible by other means. Please see pupil projection modelling data and forecasting up to 2031 available within FOI 6852 https://www.northtyneside.gov.uk/freedom-information/disclosure-log/education-review-fois/foi-6852-education-review
2. The baseline year and source data used for each projection (e.g., Oct 2023 census; GP births by planning area; housing site list/version).
January Census for previous three years
GP birth Registrations for previous three years.
Housing is forecast but not included in the formula. Pupils living in new developments at Census date are included in forecasting.
3. Any adjustment factors applied (e.g., housing impact, cross-border flows, cohort survival rates).
Information for NEPA schools and Marden high is available for from information already provided or linked to other FOIs as stated.
4. Any comparison tables showing projected vs actual pupil numbers for
recent years (where available).
No information held.